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By Steve McKillup

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1 Example of a positive correlation between the numbers of mice and the weight of wheat plants per square metre. 2 The involvement of a third variable ‘Soil moisture’ that determines the ‘Number of mice’ and ‘Kilograms of wheat’ per square metre. Even though there is no causal relationship between the number of mice and weight of wheat, the two variables are positively correlated. 2). For example, soil moisture may determine both the number of mice and the weight of wheat. Therefore, although there is a causal relationship between soil moisture and each of the two variables, they are not causally related themselves.

3 Manipulative experiments 37 only standard food were in pond 2. Therefore, any difference in growth may, or may not, have been due to the vitamin – it could equally well have been due to some other (perhaps unknown) difference between the two ponds. The experimental replicates are the ponds, not the prawns, so the experiment has no effective replication at all and is essentially the same as the absurd unreplicated guinea pig experiment described earlier in this chapter. An improvement to the design would be to run each treatment in several ponds.

0 (or 100%) since there are no other colours. ) Now consider what happens if you take out a sample of six beads in sequence, one after the other, without looking in the sack. 1 Basic concepts of probability The probability of any event can only vary between 0 and 1 (which correspond to 0 and 100%). If an event is certain to occur, it has a probability of 1; while, if it is certain the event will not occur, it has a probability of 0. The probability of a particular event is the number of outcomes giving that event, divided by the total number of possible outcomes.

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