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Extra info for Money and the Natural Rate of Unemployment
Davis and Kanago (1996) ®nd that an increase in uncertainty regarding in¯ation, measured by the variance in in¯ation forecasts found in surveys on in¯ation, causes a reduction in output while not affecting long-term real output growth. 3 The impact of in¯ation on the real interest rate and capital accumulation Most empirical investigations indicate a negative relationship between the real interest rate and in¯ation. Summers (1983) ®nds a negative correlation between in¯ation and the real interest rate.
This is because both high in¯ation and low output/low output growth may be caused by overall bad management of the economy. In chapter 10 we will point to a further reason why studies may overestimate the harmful effects of in¯ation. In a model setting where natural unemployment is endogenously determined, policy makers react to high unemployment with an expansive monetary policy to increase production. Assuming that wage setters take the policy setting of policy makers into account in wage setting, we ®nd that in¯ation is higher at low production.
Our discussion will cover investigations which indicate that monetary variables impact on the real economy through the following channels: (i) the impact of monetary policy instruments, notably monetary aggregates and interest rates, on 38 See Hayek (1978), Sibert and Sutherland (1997), and Wihlborg (1994). An overview of this evidence is presented in Friedman (1995). 39 24 Introduction and main assumptions production, (ii) the impact of in¯ation on output growth or unemployment, (iii) the impact of in¯ation on the real interest rate, on capital accumulation, and on the real stock return, (iv) the impact of the nominal exchange rate on the real exchange rate, (v) the impact of the monetary regime on the variability of real variables, (vi) estimates concerning the in¯ation tax/seigniorage, and (vii) investigations which analyse ef®ciency losses due to in¯ation.