By N. Gregory Mankiw
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In conjunction with this new stream of data, a groundswell of opinion has begun to attack the very foundations of the Myth as it no Ion ger fits the facts. Indeed, some economists and successful investors have argued that it never fitted the facts and that economic modelling is incapable of providing any useful predictions about the future anyway. An economy is a highly complex system and the simple assumptions made that are supposed to help predict the trajectory of an economy are highly dubious.
Despite the fact that the stock market crash smashed a gaping hole in his theory, Fisher's ideas were eventually resurrected to support the triumph of the Great Moderation. The on set of the Great Depression and rising mass unemployment, in conjunction with a book by a Cambridge University economist, led to a shift away from the idea that markets automatically deared and that the Quantity Theory of Money was of use to 24 Profiting from Monetary Policy policy makers and investors. J ohn Maynard Keynes was the bursar of King's College and responsible for investing its assets, wh ich he did so very successfuHy.
Indeed, higher borrowing costs would have acted as a restraint, bringing the housing bubble to an end. Perhaps Bernanke's response would have been that raising interest rates may have generated deflation, which, given his knowledge of the Great Depression by definition, meant economic contraction. However, the criticism of the Fed for not raising interest rates fast enough was indeed the view of J ohn Taylor. In 2007 he presented an interesting paper at Jackson Hole, arguing that the Taylor Rule still worked.