By Michael Toman, James Griffin, Robert J. Lempert
How may possibly generating 25 percentage of U.S. electrical energy and motor-vehicle transportation fuels from renewables by way of the yr 2025 impact U.S. patron power charges and CO2 emissions? This record reveals that attaining 25 percentage renewables with restricted effect on expenses calls for major growth in renewable-energy applied sciences and biomass creation. with out significant innovation in those components, expenses may possibly raise significantly.
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Extra info for Impacts on U.S. Energy Expenditures and Greenhouse-Gas Emissions of Increasing Renewable-Energy Use
Even though renewable-electricity technologies are generally more mature than biofuel technologies, there are still large uncertainties in the costs of achieving a 25 percent penetration level. To meet this requirement, wind power will need to expand signiﬁcantly from its current level of capacity, and the costs of developing more remote sites and those with lower-quality wind resources are very uncertain. Dedicated biomass generation in both EIA’s analysis and in ours assumes IGCC power-plant technology that uses biomass instead of coal.
In other words, if one believed that there was a high likelihood of limited progress in renewable electricity, then one would put the greatest emphasis on the scenarios with high average prices, even if their relative occurrence was low in our uniform sampling across the range of parameter values. 074 per kWh. 10 per kWh, almost 40 percent over EIA’s reference value. 085 per kWh, about 15 percent greater than EIA’s reference case. We can consider the direct eﬀects of these price increases on electricity payments for the average household.
The highest-cost supply curve uses the most-pessimistic assumptions in the range assumed for the analysis, while the lowest-cost supply curve uses the most-optimistic assumptions. 53 per gallon (EIA, 2006b). The key parameters that aﬀect the biofuel supply curves are the supply of low-cost biomass feedstock, yield of biofuel per unit of biomass, conversion costs of producing biofuels, and feedstock price for biomass from land conversion. We consider biomass to be low cost if it is available at less than $90 per ton, reﬂecting relatively inexpensive biomass supplies from wastes and marginal lands.