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By Harry Thie

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Certain Consequences of Additional Service 37 Case 6—Longer O-7, O-8, and O-9. Case 6 spreads the additional 5 years across the three lower general and flag officer grades by adding 2 years each to grades O-7 and O-8 and 1 year to grade O-9. Promotion tempo is reduced in the first three grades, while time-ingrade climbs. Over time, grade-to-grade promotion probabilities to the three highest grades increase from the base case, reflecting the smaller absolute number who get promoted from grade to grade.

Column 1 is the change in time-in-grade, and column 2 is the change in the number of promotions that occur as time-in-grade changes. The last three columns show three rates of progression. Column 3 is the promotion rate of progression and uses the number of flag-rank officers in grade as a base. 12 The denominator is constant for all cases (the number of flag-rank officers does not change in our analysis), so the rate is driven by the numerator, the number of officers promoted. Columns 4 and 5 use the number of officers promoted as a base.

Cit. 4Dewhirst, loc. cit. 5Dewhirst suggests the optimum ranges for assignments are from about 3 years at a minimum to as long as 10 years at a maximum. Much of the empirical data cited is for engineers and scientists; there is less evidence about managers. Peter Drucker has as- Certain Consequences of Additional Service 31 In our assessment, we show the consequences of additional allowed service on the number and variety of positions in which an officer can serve and on the length of time in such positions.

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