By Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
Destiny worldwide Shocks is an in-depth exam of ways significant disruptive occasions comparable to pandemics, monetary crises, serious infrastructure failure, and civic unrest can unfold via fiscal and social platforms. usually occasions start as small neighborhood occasions, yet their affects may possibly speedily propagate throughout nationwide frontiers, generating significant overseas crises.Building on analyses of episodes similar to the avian and swine flu outbreaks, the hot monetary industry meltdown, and cyber assaults on govt and commercial IT networks, the booklet explores the riding forces in the back of power international shocks of the longer term. It examines the strengths and weaknesses of present techniques to the administration of world shocks, and units out proposals that objective to enhance the resilience of financial and social platforms to such destructive disruptions.
Read or Download Future Global Shocks: Improving Risk Governance (OECD Reviews of Risk Management Policies) PDF
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Extra info for Future Global Shocks: Improving Risk Governance (OECD Reviews of Risk Management Policies)
Bank N-1 Bank N-1 Bank N-1 Bank N-1 Bank N Bank N Bank N Bank N Trigger failure (initialises algorithm) Contagion rounds (algorithm internal loop) Bank 1 e lur w Ne Trigger bank i fa New failure New re failu . . New failures… Bank 3 Final Failures (algorithm converges) Note: This figure depicts the dynamics of a network analysis. Starting with a matrix of interbank exposures, the analysis consists of simulating shocks to a specific institution (the trigger bank) and tracking the domino effect to other institutions in the network.
The data also helps to model the trajectory of local outbreaks into global pandemics, which look for a combination of certain social conditions and systems of travel and trade (Rubin, 2010). Population density, for example, is a social condition well correlated with the outbreak of epidemics. Modern air travel means that an outbreak of infectious disease in one country could spread worldwide in a matter of days in the past it would have taken months or years. The 2002 outbreaks of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) illustrated that one person in the densely populated city of Hong Kong, China could transmit a virus to guests staying in the same hotel, thus enabling the virus to spread quickly worldwide once they returned to their homes in airplanes.
4 Verified human-to-human transmission of an animal or human-animal virus able to cause “community-level outbreaks”. The ability to cause sustained disease outbreaks in a community marks a significant upwards shift in the risk for a pandemic. Any country that suspects or has verified such an event should urgently consult with WHO so that the situation can be jointly assessed and a decision made by the affected country if implementation of a rapid pandemic containment operation is warranted. Phase 4 indicates a significant increase in risk of a pandemic but does not necessarily mean that a pandemic is a foregone conclusion.