By Jan Jacobs (auth.)
Econometric enterprise Cycle Research offers with econometric enterprise cycle learn (EBCR), a time period brought by way of the Nobel-laureate Jan Tinbergen for his econometric approach to checking out (economic) company cycle theories. EBCR combines monetary conception and dimension within the learn of commercial cycles, i.e., ups and downs in total monetary job. We investigate 4 equipment of EBCR: enterprise cycle signs, simultaneous equations types, vector autoregressive platforms and genuine enterprise signs. After a comic strip of the historical past of the equipment, we examine no matter if the tools meet the targets of EBCR: the 3 conventional ones, description, forecasting and coverage assessment, and the only Tinbergen brought, the implementation|testing of industrial cycles. the 1st 3 EBCR equipment are illustrated for the Netherlands, a standard instance of a small, open economic system.
the most end of the e-book is that simultaneous equation versions are the simplest motor vehicle for EBCR, if all its ambitions are to be attained concurrently. This end is predicated on a reasonably distinct overview of the equipment and isn't over-turned within the empirical illustrations. the most end doesn't suggest the tip of different EBCR equipment. no longer all ambitions need to be met with a unmarried car, different equipment may serve the aim both good - or perhaps greater. for instance, if one is attracted to company cycle forecasts, one may well want a enterprise cycle indicator or vector autoregressive approach.
A moment end is that many ideas/concepts that play a huge function in present discussions approximately econometric technique generally and EBCR particularly, have been recommend within the Nineteen Thirties and Nineteen Forties.
a 3rd end is that it really is tough, if now not most unlikely, to check the results of RBC types to results of the opposite 3 equipment, simply because RBC modellers are usually not attracted to modelling enterprise cycles on an observation-per-observation foundation. A extra basic end during this recognize is that tools should still undertake an identical proposal of industrial cycles to cause them to comparable.
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Additional resources for Econometric Business Cycle Research
The models are not estimated but calibrated; parameter values are extracted from existing microeconometric studies or set. RBC models use refined data only, and rely heavily on filters. Errors do not have the conventional interpretation of mismatches between theory and data or measurement errors, but are considered as shocks in preferences or technologies that 'equalize' filtered model outcomes and filtered observed data in some sense. RBC models are not suited for describing cycles and forecasting in the traditional sense.
An 42 3 ASSESSMENT example of their studies is Wallis et al. (1987). For more references see Wallis's (1989) review of developments in macroeconomic forecasting. 4 Forecasting Although all four methods may be used to generate forecasts, RBC models are not used for prediction. Of the other three, business cycle indicators produce forecasts in the most direct manner. By construction indicators provide information on the future course of the business cycle. Forecasting with a (pure) VAR system is easy, because little (or no) projections for exogenous variables are necessary.
Differences to SEMs also become smaller for another reason. Treating all relevant macroeconomic variables as endogenous may be justified for a closed economy like the US. For a small country like the Netherlands foreign variables, world trade and German prices play an important role. It is not clear, however, whether domestic variables affect these foreign variables. Therefore, exogenous variables enter pure VAR systems, and so-called VARX models result. We will pick up this line of thinking in Chapter 6.