By Alan S. Blinder
Alan S. Blinder deals the twin point of view of a number one educational macroeconomist who served a stint as Vice-Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board -- person who practiced what he had lengthy preached after which again to academia to put in writing approximately it. He tells relevant bankers how they may larger contain educational wisdom and considering into the behavior of economic coverage, and he tells students how they may reorient their learn to be extra attuned to truth and hence extra necessary to principal bankers.
Based at the 1996 Lionel Robbins Lectures, this readable publication bargains succinctly, in a nontechnical demeanour, with a wide selection of matters in financial coverage. The ebook additionally contains the author's recommended way to an age-old challenge in financial concept: what it skill for financial coverage to be "neutral."
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Additional resources for Central Banking in Theory and Practice (Lionel Robbins Lectures)
Taken together, they lead to the following sort of strategy: 15 Step 1. " Then do less. Page 18 Step 2. Watch developments. Step 3a. If things work out about as expected, increase your tightening or loosening toward where you thought it should be in the first place. Step 3b. If the economy seems to be evolving differently from what you expected, adjust policy accordingly. Two final points about preemptive monetary policy are worth making. First, a successful stabilization policy based on preemptive strikes will appear to be misguided and may therefore leave the central bank open to severe criticism.
Conservative central bankers: This brings me to the third proposed theoretical solution to the conundrum posed by Barro and Gordon—the one with the most practical appeal. Rogoff (1985) cleverly suggested that, if there is an inflationary bias in monetary policy, the cure may lie in the appointment of more "conservative" central bankers. Now that really does have the ring of truth! " To Rogoff, conservatism has a very specific meaning. In the Barro-Gordon model, the taste parameter a, which indicates the relative disutilities of inflation and unemploy- Page 47 ment, is presumed to be common to the central bank and the public.
19 So monetary policy decisions tend to regress toward the mean and to be inertial—and hence biased in just the same way that adap- Page 22 tive expectations are biased relative to rational expectations. But errors like that, while systematic, will generally be small and will tend to shrink over time. And, in return, the system builds in natural safeguards against truly horrendous mistakes. I leave it to some clever theorist to prove that the FOMC is an example of optimal institutional design. My own hunch is that, on balance, the additional monetary policy inertia imparted by group decisionmaking provides a net benefit to society.