By John Foster, Werner Holzl
Debates the points of complexity and evolution in utilized contexts recognising that glossy evolutionary economics is at a crossroads. Foster is from collage of Queensland.
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Extra resources for Applied Evolutionary Economics and Complex Systems
In this second case any shock evidently aﬀects the value of the variable at all leads and, therefore, it has a persistent eﬀect. Moreover the time series is entirely determined by the occurrence of all past shocks (Fuller 1999, Maddala and Kim 1998). Following the seminal article by Nelson and Plosser (1982), the empirical evidence in the last 20 years has contradicted the linear trend models. 36 Random walks and non-linear paths in macroeconomics 37 The stochastic trend model put forward by Nelson and Plosser seemed, instead, not to be contradicted by empirical results.
For each author we mark with a minus (Ϫ) sign the variable that was found stationary along a broken trend. Criticisms of both the broken trend and the unit root hypothesis have been put forward by several authors. Zivot and Andrews (1990, 1992) 43 Hansen (1991) Song and Wu (1997) Song and Wu (1998) Hylleberg and Engle (1996) · · Gokey (1990) Capitelli and Scjlegel (1991) Leslie et al. 2 Main works supporting hypothesis of a broken trend in macroeconomic time series 44 · Li (1995) Gil and Robinson (1997) Ϫ Ϫ Y Ϫ Ϫ Y/N Ϫ Ϫ Ϫ Ϫ Yi YD GNP GNP/N Ϫ E U Ϫ Ϫ w r Ϫ e p Newly industrializing countries G7 OECD USA USA USA USA OECD USA USA USA Italy Country Notes: Y ϭGDP, Y/NϭGDP per capita, Yi ϭindustrial production, YD ϭincome distribution, Eϭemployment, U ϭunemployment rate, wϭwages, rϭinterest rate, eϭexchange rate, p ϭconsumer price index Alba and Papell (1995) Fleissing and Strauss (1997) McCoskey and Selden (1998) Cheung and Chinn (1996) Dolmas et al.
However, much of this research is misguided, because of the fact that C must be systematically related to Y in an aggregate sense even if the association between them at the microeconomic level is entirely random around an average propensity to spend. We know that people spend from income and that spending in turn becomes income. Aggregate consumption relates to the whole economic system and all components of expenditure eventually filter back into consumption expenditure, as Keynes so clearly explained.