By Jean-Hervé Lorenzi, Mickaël Berrebi
During the Nineties Francis Fukuyama introduced the top of historical past. The 2000s confirmed the way it is an phantasm to visualize a calm international with out conflict.
In this ebook the authors discover how six significant constraints are set to mend the trajectory of the worldwide financial system. 3 of them are new: the getting older inhabitants, the failure of technical growth, and the shortage of discounts. the opposite 3 were at paintings for your time: the explosion of inequality, the mass move of actions from one finish of the area to the opposite, and the unlimited financialization of economic system. They recommend that like seismic job which depends upon strain among tectonic plates, the political and social tensions should be exacerbated within the coming years by means of those significant forces. They suggest that professionals might be incapable of stopping neither the date nor the depth of the arriving earthquakes, and ask the query: can we focus on those destiny shocks and the violence they're absolute to reason?
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Extra info for A Violent World: Modern Threats to Economic Stability
The weight of demographics in history3 The links between demographics and the economy, and the way in which economists have been tackling the subject for the past two centuries are decisive, even if the results are not definitive and have been the subject of much debate. In fact, a consideration of the role of populations in human history, a delicate subject and a minefield since it is conducive to digression, is nevertheless essential if we are to imagine our future. Everything has been said on this subject, all of the arguments have long been discussed and all the truths and counter-truths have been evoked, since behind these words about populations there lie the profiles of domination, slavery or integration, migration, respect or contempt, the ownership of land and its riches, in a word; war or peace.
Let us very briefly survey this eternal discussion about people, their migrations and where they choose to settle. Two words have faced off against each other during the course of the past twenty centuries with an almost mechanical regularity – domination, assimilation and once again domination – without any The Curse of Ageing 33 justification other than the power that can be exerted. At the same time, a philosophical debate is taking shape and it has a famous protagonist in Thomas Malthus. It is here, in the economy, that this intellectual discipline was born.
In the rest of Asia, on the other hand, transfers of public money to the ageing population are very small and, if they remain so, ageing ought not to threaten public expenditure. Yet without such transfers of expenditure could families bear the cost of an ageing population? In east Asia and in Thailand, net family support for the aged is important. In India and south-east Asia, on the other hand, net family payment transfers are not directed at the ageing population. The economic consequences of population ageing in the countries of Asia thus depend on which model has been adopted, whether or not they are based on that of Japan.